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Response to Hussein Amin on Uganda’s take from oil sector

President Museveni signs the oil agreements

President Museveni signs the oil agreements

The assertion that Uganda got a bad deal from the oil and gas projects, and that it will only earn $5 per barrel, is not only factually wrong but does not make logical sense.

Mr Hussein Lumumba Amin ignorantly mixes up the economics of the upstream with the economics of the midstream. To understand government’s expected take/revenue from the sector, these two segments of the petroleum value chain must be understood/ explained separately.

The crux of his faulty and bizarre thesis is captured below:

“Let’s do the simple maths in five seconds. “Today a barrel of oil costs $60. Now the oil companies will get 70 per cent of that, which is $42. And the Tanzanian government charges $12.77 as transit tax for each barrel of oil passing on the Tanzanian portion of the pipeline.

“The oil companies and the Tanzanian government take $55 from the $60 dollars of each barrel, leaving Uganda to take only $5 dollars from each barrel of its own oil.

“Even a kid will know they have gotten a bad deal.”

If we begin with the midstream, the agreed commercial structure for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) as per the Shareholder’s Agreement is that the project is jointly funded and owned by the governments of Uganda and Tanzania, and the oil companies. 

The agreed shareholding is Total with participation of 62 per cent, CNOOC Limited at 8 per cent, Government of Uganda through the Ugandan National Oil Company (UNOC) with 15 per cent, and Government of Tanzania through the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) agreeing to take up to 15 per cent.

Mr Hussein missed the turn when he presumably added up the 62 per cent shareholding of Total BV and CNOOC’s 8 per cent in the EACOP, and came up with a bizarre 70 per cent, which he confused with the petroleum revenues in the upstream.

Equally important to note is that his assertion that the agreed tariff of $12.77 is payable to only Tanzania, is to take an unchartered journey into the abyss.

The EACOP Company (of which Uganda is a shareholder) will receive the tariff (transportation charge) and, therefore, Uganda as a shareholder, through UNOC, will partake of any dividends arising from it. The tariff is not paid to Tanzania, which also exempted EACOP from payment of a transit fee, in any case.

For the upstream, government revenues from the oil and gas sector include royalties, profit oil share, state participation and taxes. The Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) signed between the Governments and the Oil companies provide for the sharing of petroleum during production.

The international oil company (IOC) invests capital to explore and develop the resources. When production of oil starts, government first receives a royalty payment of between 5 per cent and 12.5 per cent depending on the level of production.

Then, the next deduction goes to recovery of the oil company’s costs, which is capped at 60 per cent to 70 per cent of the remaining ‘oil’ after royalty deduction. The next payment is considered as profit oil, which is shared between the company and Government as per the PSAs.

Government also receives corporate tax (approx. 30 per cent) on the oil company’s share of profit oil. Government’s total take from the upstream, as per the current PSAs, therefore, ranges between 65 per cent and 80 per cent. It increases over the years given that there will be less costs to recover.

The overall projected annual revenues from the sector are estimated at $1.5bn to $2bn.  Besides the revenues, the expected investments of $15bn over the next four years when construction of the infrastructure will take place, is an immense opportunity for the country through the provision of the required goods and services.

In addition, the oil and gas sector will have a positive economic impact on other growth sectors of the economy such as manufacturing, tourism, agriculture and health, among others. It is projected that these linkages will increase Uganda’s revenue/ GDP by $8.4 billion before first oil.

Whereas we appreciate the interest in the development of the sector, it is important that the information shared should be based on facts.

A cursory look at any of the PAU/UNOC/MEMD websites would reveal these basic facts. It is also a sign of strength, and not a weakness to consult. The oil and gas sector has potential to cause positive social and economic transformation in the country and, therefore, calls for sober and objective discourse. 

corporateaffairs@pau.go.ug

The writer is the director, Legal and Corporate Affairs at Petroleum Authority of Uganda

Comments

-3 #1 Respol 2021-04-21 07:59
Thank you Ali for correcting the mistake, much appreciated.

Many Ugandans are ignorant of what is going on in the Oil industry and a lot of awareness is needed to bring people up to speed.
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+4 #2 Lysol 2021-04-21 22:23
Let us stop with the fuzzy Math. Museveni is treating the oil as his personal property to enrich himself and family.

The idea of building the pipeline through Tanzania was dumb. The shortest distance would have been through Kenya. But he hates those "northerners" and wants to keep them under-developed. History will tell us when the project fail. Don't trust Total.
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-1 #3 John B 2021-04-22 21:32
Wonderful clarification. There has been a lot of misinformation surrounding the oil sector.

Point of information regarding fears of an 'oil curse'. What most people do not seem to understand, is that for any theft to take place, there must first be production.

For production to take place, there must be investment partners and expertise, guarantees regarding a return on investment, etc.

Only after all initial stages have been successfully completed, do revenues become available. At which point, the curses related to failure to absorb the cash injections, may or may not take root.

But some Ugandans have been cursing since the oil was discovered. We should call those 'oil curses', or better yet, 'oil cursers'.

The only point where you totally mislead us, is when you say tourism will benefit. How exactly? That was a step too far!! Unless you meant more foreign travel. Tourism.
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+1 #4 Lysol 2021-04-24 00:23
Amin did not sell our land or resources to other countries in order to enrich himself and family. M7 is worst than Amin.

He learnt from the best Amin and Obote to perfect his dictatorship and hold onto the country. They say it takes one to know the other.
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0 #5 Benson Okello 2021-04-26 21:29
What is so hard about building an oil refinery here in Uganda?

It would greatly contribute a huge percentage in closing the unemployment gap whilst earning the country itself higher profits than just a mere 15%.

I am no economist but President Amin would have thought along the same line. WHAT HAPPENED TO "BUY UGANDA, BUILD UGANDA"?
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