The excitement and euphoria as Bobi Wine made his way to the polling station, threw his ballot into the box, did the cross, and then the celebratory fist made me forget my predictions of another Museveni thuggery. Not even the closure of the internet could kill my newly found optimism.

I was carried by the wind. When the counting began, with Bobi Wine sweeping individual polling stations – including from Mbarara City – I couldn’t believe my ears. There was excitement everywhere. I actually thought Museveni had thrown Ugandans a 2021 surprise – not rigging this election.

I called a bosom friend of mine to share my pleasant fears, to which she said, “We’ll throw Museveni the biggest party ever, if he actually left on this occasion. We’ll celebrate his birthday many years after he’s dead if he really surprised us by not rigging this election.”

But then, quickly, Electoral Commission chairperson Simon Byabakama started reading his figures from hell. I crashed out. A clampdown on actual figures started. Even NBS journalist Daniel Lutaaya, who had posted individual polling station victories for Bobi Wine, was phone-called and ordered to pull them down.

Daily Monitor also pulled down a story, which exposed Byabakama’s confusion with figures. The ugly Museveni reality returned full circle. Slowly, I found solace in own earlier pronouncements: “Museveni can only lose an election if left to run alone,” “not even Jesus Christ could win an election against Museveni.”

“The EC chairman is not Imam Kasozi.” Even with these headlines of mine, I had not prepared enough for another crowning of this old monarch from Rwakitura.

I could not imagine the pain of Bobi Wine’s foot-soldiers and activists who invested unreserved time and energy, risked their lives hoping Museveni would be overwhelmed – and the EC would do the right thing. I was more sympathetic: they were not naïve but, rather, hopeful, the same hope I had felt only on the voting day.

They had been hopeful for months. They must have been terribly hurting. They must be hurting. I called my 70-year-old mother; she was also hurting at Museveni electoral robbery. Museveni did not disappoint; his Electoral Commission. His Uganda Communications Commission, his Uganda People’s Defense Forces.

His regular and military police, all ensured he maintains the presidency. [Not sure for how long]. On the other hand, Bobi Wine, shone more than anyone had anticipated.

Together with Patrick Amuriat, they braved all Museveni’s shameless fortune, and held on like circumcised men deserving our unreserved plaudits.

Phase I is finished: as it stands now, we are where we are supposed to be: a stolen election, a country on tension, a heavily armed autocrat who has vowed to imprison, batter, shoot-to-kill and maim opposition forces. If Bobi Wine were not allowed to campaign, they would surely not allow him to protest – even when this is a constitutional provision.

Intimidated to the bone, ordinary folks will lazily, painfully return to their daily labors readying themselves for the pains of the next five years.

Phase II ought to be engaged on the understanding that after 20 years in power, incumbents not only win elections through violence, intimidation, and money, but also govern through violence, intimidation and money.

Now at 35, the use of violence for Museveni is his absolute lifeline. Bobi Wine is likely to be under house arrest for an extended period. With the appointment of soldier, Paul Loketch as deputy inspector general of police, a fellow more accomplished
in urban terrorism considering his experience in Mogadishu, there will be more night-time, quiet and dangerous arrests.

As before, there will be more murders, but less admissions. [Zebra Mando was a miscalculation]. Disappearances have already been reported, more should be expected. Tighter surveillance in the central region, a place more openly hostile to Museveni, has already started.

More patronage: I am hoping Bobi Wine hasn’t already lost 50 persons to Museveni’s cash after securing their seats in parliament. The Ugandan parliament is a den of thieves, and dealers; NUP’s newbies better beware from Museveni cash, because it is a form of violence for which careers have been ended. What does this environment mean for genuine opposition?

The harder part of the job began on January 14. This is the time for more creativity and clinical precision. The gloves are off already, and Museveni’s state has been readying itself for the aftermath of the election for the last five years.

But presently, they are already locked in own [military] greatness, and [terrorism] tactics: Internet cannot be shut down for longer, neither can the military be sustained on the streets without end. By the way, where is Eron Kiiza, Nicholas Opiyo, Isaac Ssemakadde, Medard Sseggona, Asuman Basalirwa, Isabella Akiteng, Perry Aritua?

I thought you guys had work to do at Bobi Wine’s home. Phase II will run alongside your doggedness around prisons, and eloquence around the courts. I know, they are messy, but at least they still give bail, and also create political prisoners.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.