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Museveni will not let anyone mess with oil

Recently, a friend posted on Facebook saying: “Hon… what is your opinion on this grand debate on lifting the age limit as an academic, not as a politician?”

I promised to join him soon at the club but now seeing that I may take long to go to the club house, I opted to use this provocation to join the debate using this medium.

Those of us who supported lifting the term limits in 2005 to preserve space for President Museveni to still compete premised our argument on the possible vacuum that would be created by his exit.

I want to submit that given the political contestations at that time and the anger that had been generated by the fall-out of very senior NRM historical figures and a vibrant elite middle-aged cadre of recent NRM converts, a takeover by soldiers would have been unavoidable. 

We must recall that even senior army legislators were taking sides, for and against lifting the two-term limit for the president.

My reading of the game was that the contestations were heated up by the realization of the possibility by some of them ascending to the highest office in the land in the absence of their boss. 

Progressively, even those legislators who proposed a middle position which would make President Museveni manage the political transition (the Namibia way where President Sam Nujoma was given five more years but maintained the limits on terms in the constitution) were flatly dismissed by two contending extreme forces: those for outright lifting and those against. The rest is history.

Today, we are witnessing another political turning point in the NRM era, namely: expunging age limits (Article 102 (b) of the Constitution). Said differently is whether or not Museveni should be left to continue competing for the presidency even after 76 years of age that he will have attained by 2021. 

Quite often, it is characteristic of certain people to be intolerant of divergent arguments advanced outside what is written in the ‘holy book of laws’.

They, instead, go on rampage unleashing verbal attacks on fellow citizens with divergent views. At the risk of being a victim, let me pose the following questions:

1). What would the government be like if a president other than from NRM was in charge of the country, given NRM’s close to 70 per cent dominance of parliament? 

2). Having operationalised the Constitution since 1996, is  it not worth noting that the current hybrid of the presidential system and parliamentary system is, after all, not the best political framework for Uganda?

Is it not a potential political precipice for the country to fall off if a president who is given a lot of power in the Constitution was to preside over a country with a 70 per cent political leadership in the opposition, a lot of which is never principled?

3). Do we not notice consistent occurrences of turmoil in countries in Africa, hitherto held together by strongmen who have been removed involuntarily? 

President Museveni still has a lot of influence on the Ugandan political and military scene, including his successor should he opt to leave.

Just like the late Mwalimu Julius Nyerere of Tanzania bequeathed both the political and military institutions to a selected line of successors such as Ali Hassan Mwinyi, Benjamin Mkapa, and Jakaya Kikwete in that order, and initially under his watchful eye (Nyerere had dismantled the colonial army outfit and created a pro-people army which was still loyal to him), Museveni has no choice but to adopt the same path. 

With regard to the army, you may want to read Section 15 (1) (c) of the UPDF Act: “There is established under this Act the High Command of the Defence Forces consisting of… (c) Members of the High Command on 26th February 1986 whose names are set out in the Third Schedule to this Act”.

The Third Schedule to the act lists the names as: (Rtd) Gen Yoweri Museveni, Lt Gen Elly Tumwine, Lt Gen Salim Saleh Akandwanaho, Lt Gen David Tinyefuza, Honorary Brig Eriya Kategaya, and Brig Rtd Matayo Kyaligonza. What would happen to a president who would succeed Museveni without his blessing? Your guess is as good as mine, which calls for more intellect than emotion.

Let me add this hypothesis. Until President Museveni has nurtured the nascent oil industry to relative maturity, he will not, by whatever means, allow anybody to destabilise his leadership grip on the country. 

I propose that the direction of the debate should be towards an alternative model of a multiparty government for the remaining years of President Museveni as he can only succumb to the law of natural selection.

This model of government would then be able to oversee Uganda’s transition from the current NRM bush war protagonists (Besigye, Mugisha Muntu, Tinyefuza, Amama Mbabazi, Amanya Mushega and the like on the one hand and Museveni, Kale Kayihura, Henry Tumukunde, Elly Tumwine, Kyaligonza, Ruhakana Rugunda, Kirunda Kivejinja and others on the other) to a much younger generation.

For critics going viral on social media about Patrick Kamara’s interview with President Museveni on NTV, I leave you with three quotations from a renowned political philosopher Niccolò Machiavelli:

>> Whoever desires constant success must change his conduct with the times.

>> How we live is so different from how we ought to live. He who studies what ought to be done rather than what is done will learn the way to his downfall rather than to his preservation, and 

>> The promise given was a necessity of the past; the word broken is a necessity of the present.


The author is a former minister and member of parliament.


+2 #11 Life president 2017-07-16 00:42
Time has come for all Ugandans to oppose the power drunk m7 and his family of friends.

Uganda can grow and beautify again
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+4 #12 michael bernard 2017-07-16 00:47
It is very unfortunate that those are the elites Uganda has.

And he comfortably put "the author is a former minister and member of parliament". who does not know m7's caliber of ministers and MPs.(the Anites and Abirigas of this world?)
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+1 #13 Augustine 2017-07-16 13:21
The author is an idiot. such arguments should not be coming out from this man.

What if Museveni falls dead tomorrow does the author think the whole country will die???

Looks like he thinks Museveni should become a monarch
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+2 #14 Akot 2017-07-16 16:38
Quoting Life president:
Time has come for all Ugandans to oppose the power drunk m7 and his family of friends.

Uganda can grow and beautify again


It's time Ugandans join the rest of the world & fight for their liberty otherwise, the world will continue to be entertained by our miseries!

Peope bring change & not just work in peace to remain poor under a useless government!

Amin was more decent than museveni: he did not use MPs/parliament to blind the world & use UN-developed world as museveni has done & continues to!

If Ugandans don't want to UNTIE to throw the monster out NOW, then the least they can do is not even talk about next election nor vote!
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+1 #15 Akot 2017-07-16 16:49
Lysol, agreed!

Every country that depends entirely on oil is in trouble since oil price dropped & are looking for alternaives!

Oil in museveni Uganda is more destructive to locals because they will be thrown out of their lands: the country does not belong to us any more & we are not in position to stop museveni doing what he wants!

Uganda is mainly Agricultural & this is why Education-Agriculture MUST be Nationally handled to include everyone if we want to have the know-how-the right people to handle projects...!
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-1 #16 Akot 2017-07-16 17:03
Remase, thanks!

Supporting war lead us to hell & we lost our country: we are a tribally divided people with tribal leaders living in silence unconcerned about the country ALL have lost, yet we continue to maintain the tribalistic system & keep the owner of our country in power!

We MUST UNITE to throw museveni out, more so UNITY will give us chance to Reform the Republic or go for Triabl States without museveni haveing place any where!

Of course tribes that want museveni will be free to take him in!

Is there any reason we still stay tribally divided & let museveni continue creating more districts, when non of us is at home in museveni Uganda?
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0 #17 Akot 2017-07-16 17:14
Quoting Remase:
"The author is a former minister and member of parliament." No wonder!!!


What a shame we just help museveni own our country-divide us, not aware non of us will be considered Ugandans when the conqueror completes conquest!

But then again, not only Ugandans are completely turned upside down, UN has become official partner of dictator museveni!

Developed countries MUST walk out of UN instead of making sure there is money to draw refugees, while leaving dictators-war mongers...in peace without opposition from their people!

UN has turned things upside down & is maintaining wars-tribalism-sectatrianism while racism is rising due to migration encouraged & financed through UN!

UN is threat to peace & stability to developed world as museveni is threat to existence of Ugandans!
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+1 #18 Martha L. Nangalama 2017-07-16 19:24
But do these people not know that Uganda oil is going no where?

No refinery, no pipeline, no oil. In addition the price of oil will not rise anytime soon for Uganda to break even.

Uganda is also going to be downgraded by Standard and Poor just like Moody's and Fitch downgraded it.

All this nonsense about destabilization talk is when people forget that the turmoil in those countries like Libya and Egypt were simply and purely because of dictators who did not want to relinquish power. I cry for my country? A whole former minister?

Uganda policy makers need to start reading my OIL reports (Tuesdays and Fridays) and they will learn where Energy is heading.
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+1 #19 Lakwena 2017-07-17 10:59
Qaddafi also didn't want anyone to mess with the Libyan Oil. But where is he now?

Somewhere at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, or his ashes scattered over the Libyan Desert.

In other words, that is what ambition, avarice or greed does to a person: it dehumanizes.
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0 #20 Yoga Kivumbi 2017-07-30 14:35
What are we on here?!!
Some old turtles should hide their heads down never to raise them up!

Everything has an end...
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