It is not Uganda alone that is facing a crucial moment in its political landscape. There are other regional configurations we have to squarely look at; for if left alone, the ramifications could be bad for the region.
There is a day that passed without many of us paying attention. January 9, 2010 marked the fifth anniversary of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that saw the end of decades of war in Sudan. The agreement was a milestone.

The marginalisation that had created an impasse in Africa’s largest country was seen to be over. The CPA laid out a roadmap ending a devastating civil war pitting the North against the South, during which an estimated two million people were killed and millions more displaced. The agreement also called for  democratic transformation in Sudan.

For some, the willingness of the late leader of SPLM, Dr. John Garang, to enter bed with the North, was humbling. Give and take was the norm.

Five years on, the premise of peace in Sudan has been anything but comprehensive. War has raged Sudan’s Western Darfur region, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives, and displacing another 2.5 million people.

Although the scale of violence has declined in recent months, there is no comprehensive political solution and violence could be reignited at any time. At the same time, critical elements of the CPA were stalled or frustrated, and the promise of democratic transformation has all but evaporated.

The African Union’s own High Level Panel on Darfur, headed by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, described the conflict in Darfur not as the Darfur crisis, but as the “Sudanese crisis in Darfur.”

Both conflicts are rooted in the lack of accountability and transparency of the current regime and in the systematic marginalisation of the country’s peripheries; Darfur, the East and South.

The African Union has declared 2010 the year of peace and security in Africa and it will be celebrated later this month when, again, the AU summit meets in Addis Ababa. Although there are many conflicts in Africa in need of attention, it is difficult to point to another for which 2010 will be of such critical importance.

Sudan has borders with at least nine countries. Many of them have their own simmering political tensions, which if unchecked could have wider regional implications.

January 9, 2010 marked the beginning of the final year of the interim period envisaged by the CPA as an opportunity to make unity attractive and build a new Sudan. It will end with a referendum in which Southerners will vote on secession - and it is widely predicted that the South will, in fact, secede.

If critical issues with regard to border demarcation, wealth sharing and the transitional areas are not addressed, the potential for violence around the referendum will increase. 

Sudan is due to hold its first multi-party elections in more than two decades in April, followed by an independence referendum in the South next year.

But tensions are rising in a country divided along ethnic, religious and ideological lines. Last year, more than 2,500 people died and 350,000 people were displaced from their homes in the South. The elections may serve as a flashpoint for renewed violence.

With just three months to go, there is little indication that they will be free and fair. Indeed there have been significant reports of serious violations of freedom of speech and freedom of association rights desperately needed for a fair contest. There have also been reports of violations of the electoral process itself.

If the African Union is going to make good on its promise of peace and stability in Africa, it must play a leading role in Sudan.

Of course there are other hot points on the continent, but for South Sudan, the possibility of regional instability is real. Matters are not helped by the presence of the Lord’s Resistance Army in the region.

In July this year, the African Union summit will be held in Kampala. By that time, it will be well known how far Sudan has been split. As for the East African Community, there will be other ramifications.

An independent South Sudan is desirous of joining the five-country East Africa Community block and that comes with potential bad blood with the North, which vehemently opposes secession of the South. The people of Sudan have been waiting too long for peace. Let 2010 become a year for peace in all of Sudan and the entire region.

The author is a human rights expert and specialist on refugee issues
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