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.jpg) Former Army Commander and opposition heavyweight, Major General Gregory Mugisha Muntu, is quietly talking up his bid to run for president in 2011, The Observer has reliably learnt. But the opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) Secretary for Mobilisation has to win the party endorsement first, by defeating rivals including party president, Col. Kizza Besigye, during the February 2010 delegates’ conference.
Although he has not yet officially declared his intentions, Besigye is widely expected to offer himself to stand for president for a third time. Besigye has lost twice to the incumbent President Museveni; in 2001 and 2006. He has, however, often said that the ultimate decision will be made by the FDC delegates’ conference. In a phone interview on Monday, General Muntu, who was on his way from Arusha, Tanzania where he works as a member of the East African Legislative Assembly, said he could “neither confirm nor deny” his interest in the country’s top job. FDC will hold its delegates’ conference in February 2010, specifically to endorse the party’s presidential candidate, Alice Alaso, the Secretary General, said last week. The party’s parliamentary candidates who will have been elected by the lower conferences will also be announced. Highly placed FDC sources have told The Observer that Muntu is one of about four other senior party members who are privately consulting before announcing their candidature.
“It is going to be hotter than our February (2009) delegates’ conference at Namboole,” said a senior FDC official who preferred anonymity. General Muntu challenged Col. Besigye to the party presidency in February this year in a contest that almost polarised the largest opposition party. Besigye polled 656 votes to Muntu’s 53 in a contest that the two former bush-war comrades described as very good for democracy. Although senior party officials were asked not to back any of the two contenders, they quietly mobilised support for both. Those backing Besigye described Muntu as a laid-back man, yet taking on the incumbent, President Museveni, requires an aggressive person. On the other hand, Muntu’s supporters described Besigye as excessively aggressive. But the Colonel brushed aside such criticism, saying that “a dictator” cannot simply be massaged out of office, but rather forced out. Coalition The FDC nomination is not the only hurdle Muntu, or indeed Col. Besigye, would have to overcome. After internal party elections, the successful candidate will be subjected to another vote by the Inter Party Alliance (IPA) sometime in March or April 2010. The Inter Party Alliance, which comprises FDC, UPC, CP and JEEMA, will sign a second protocol on December 18. A joint presidential candidate of the IPA will be elected by representatives of the four member parties. The parties will have equal representation at the retreat. Except where a candidate sails through unopposed, each party will be asked to send about 400 delegates to a district conference, which will elect IPA parliamentary candidates. UPC is about to choose a party president from five contenders. And according to the party Constitution, the leader of UPC as elected by 1/3 majority of the delegates shall be its flag-bearer in the general elections. The five include: Jimmy Akena (Lira Municipality MP), Henry Mayega (Makerere University official), Joseph Ochieno (party envoy in UK), and Olara Otunnu, a former UN Under-Secretary). JEEMA President, Muhammad Kibirige Mayanja, and CP’s John Ken Lukyamuzi will most likely not offer themselves, leaving the IPA joint presidential candidate contest to UPC and FDC. The IPA plans to introduce a running-mate, although the Uganda Constitution doesn’t provide for it. The IPA second protocol spells out details of how power will be shared incase the group wins the next general elections. The top four offices in the country, i.e. President, Vice President, Speaker and Prime Minister, are to be shared equally. Besigye versus Muntu There is a feeling among some FDC and opposition supporters that Col. Besigye cannot win over any more supporters of the NRM ruling party, yet he needs them to win convincingly. It is believed that while some NRM members who are unhappy with the rampant corruption in the ruling party may want change, they fear that Besigye, once elected, might pursue a retribution agenda. This is partly because he has been widely harassed by the incumbent government, and partly because of his angry tone. Such people, some FDC officials say, would feel safer with Gen. Muntu as president. In fact, one such official has suggested that if Besigye wins the next general election, Uganda might experience a coup, as many senior Army officers don’t seem to like him. Besides, both Museveni and Besigye appear to take their contest for state power to a personal level. This is probably the reason the two have not spoken to each other ever since Besigye acrimoniously retired from the Army in 2000 and launched a campaign to unseat Museveni. Col. Besigye refused to attend a meeting convened by Museveni for all the 2006 presidential candidates in June the same year, after the elections. Besigye has twice dragged Museveni to court, accusing him of rigging the elections. On both occasions the Supreme Court unanimously agreed with him that there were election irregularities, but fell short of annulling the vote and upheld Museveni’s victory. Sources tell us that people like Col. Nuwe Amanya Mushega and Richard Kaijuka, among others, would prefer Muntu to Besigye because they believe that would help the FDC win over more of their colleagues from NRM. Indeed while some opposition supporters prefer an aggressive and militaristic Besigye, who they believe is best placed to uproot a well-entrenched Museveni, others prefer Muntu’s calm but firm and assured demeanor. These are issues the FDC national delegates will have to consider when they assemble to elect a presidential candidate early next year. With DP locked in internal squabbles and UPC without a crowd puller, the winner between Muntu and Besigye is likely to be the joint opposition presidential candidate. The People’s Progressive Party (PPP) of Jaberi Bidandi Ssali and Social Democrats associated with Makindye East MP, Michael Mabikke, are in the process of joining the IPA and will therefore not present separate candidates. The only known party that may field a separate opposition candidate is People’s Development Party (PDP) of Dr. Abed Bwanika. Bwanika stood in the last elections and polled slightly less than one percent. He recently told the IPA that he would be willing to join them as long as he’s the joint presidential candidate.
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